They may be rivals on the pitch, but when France and Belgium face off for the 76th time in history, it’s always a thrilling encounter. On Monday, these two footballing giants will clash in the last 16 of EURO 2024, promising a match filled with intensity and skill.
History Repeats
Didier Deschamps might have mixed feelings about facing Belgium, a team France has encountered more than any other. With 26 victories out of 75 matches, France has a storied history against the Red Devils. Their most memorable encounter was the 1-0 semi-final win at the 2018 World Cup, a result that still haunts Belgium and their former goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois.
Seeking Redemption
For Kevin De Bruyne and his team, the time for redemption has arrived. Both France and Belgium finished second in their respective groups, marking the first time France did not top their group under Deschamps. Neither team dazzled in the group stage, with both squads showing low conversion rates in front of goal.
Despite their struggles, France managed to score thanks to an Austrian own goal and a Kylian Mbappe penalty against Poland, while Belgium’s goals came only against Romania through Youri Tielemans and De Bruyne. Both teams recorded low goal conversion rates of just 4.2%, highlighting their offensive woes.
Offensive Challenges
During the group stage, French and Belgian fans often found themselves frustrated. France took 113 shots inside the opponent’s penalty area, a record since Opta began analyzing the Euros in 1980, while Belgium registered 95 shots. Individually, Jeremy Doku led in attempts, with Romelu Lukaku and Kylian Mbappe close behind. Despite their efforts, both Lukaku and Cristiano Ronaldo have yet to score in the tournament.
The expected goals (xG) statistics also reflect their struggles. France had the widest negative differential between goals and expected goals at -3.9, while Belgium had the third widest at -2.3. Deschamps and Belgium’s coach Domenico Tedesco have their work cut out for them as they prepare for Monday’s match.
Defensive Stability
While their offensive play has been lacking, both teams have shown stability at the back. With two clean sheets each, only Spain has performed better defensively. The expected goals values of shots taken by their opponents were among the lowest in the tournament, indicating solid defensive performances.
France excelled in head-to-head duels, winning 59% of their one-on-ones, the best ratio in the group stage. Belgium also demonstrated strong possession skills, posting the third-best ratio at 59%. The French full-backs were particularly active, contributing significantly to their team’s attacks.
Midfield Mastery
The midfield battle will be crucial in this clash. France will need to closely monitor De Bruyne, who recorded 11 assists in qualifying, second only to Joshua Kimmich. Tielemans also plays a key role, having racked up six assists. The connection between De Bruyne and Doku is particularly dangerous, with the Manchester City star frequently breaking defensive lines with his passes.
On the French side, Mbappe’s link-up play with Theo Hernandez will be pivotal. Both teams focus their attacks on the wings, making the role of full-backs crucial.
Extra-Time Experience
If the match extends beyond 90 minutes, France’s experience in extra time could be decisive. They have played in 15 extra-time matches in major tournaments, more than twice as many as Belgium. However, Les Bleus have been eliminated on penalties four times, including three under Deschamps.
As these two rivals prepare to clash, fans can expect a match decided by fine margins. With history, strategy, and skill all in play, this EURO 2024 encounter promises to be a memorable one.
